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Global Aging Pressures :, Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms, Manmohan Kumar, Dennis Botman

Label
Global Aging Pressures :, Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms, Manmohan Kumar, Dennis Botman
Language
eng
Abstract
Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global aging pressures using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM). The results suggest substantial spillover effects of aging through international financial channels. To maintain sustainability, fiscal adjustment needs to be broad-based, while avoiding increases in direct taxes. There are substantial benefits from fiscal cooperation, while negative growth effects can be offset by complementary structural reforms in product and labor markets with the benefits accruing early and to all incomegroups
resource.governmentPublication
international or intergovernmental publication
Literary Form
non fiction
Main title
Global Aging Pressures :
Nature of contents
dictionaries
Responsibility statement
Manmohan Kumar, Dennis Botman
Series statement
IMF Working Papers
Sub title
Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms
Table Of Contents
CONTENTS; Introduction; I. Demographic Trends and Fiscal pressures; II. Key Features of the IMF's Global Fiscal Model; III. Calibrating The Model; Tables; 1. Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Variables in the Initial Steady State 1/; 2. Germany: Fiscal Variables and Key Parameter Values; IV. Debt Dynamics And Fiscal Adjustment In Germany; A. Debt Dynamics: Population Aging in Germany and in Trading Partners; Figures; 1. Germany: Primary Expenditure; 2. Effects on German Debt Dynamics of Population Aging in Germany 1/; 3: The Effects of Alternative Aging Cost Projections on Debt DynamicsB. Fiscal Adjustment in Germany4: Effects on German Debt Dynamics of Global Population Aging 1/; 3. Germany: Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies: 2006-17 1/; 5. Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies 1/; 6. Debt Dynamics in Germany With Fiscal Adjustment; 7: Macroeconomic Effects on Germany of Adjustment Package 1/; V. Global Aging and Fiscal Adjustment: International Cooperation?; 4. Adjustment Strategies in the euro area and the U.S.: 2006-17; 5. Net Present Value of GDP of Fiscal Cooperation 1/; 8. Effects on Real GDP in Germany of Fiscal Cooperation 1/8. cont. Effects on Real GDP in the euro area of Fiscal Cooperation8. cont. Effects on Real GDP in the United States of Fiscal Cooperation; 8. cont. Effects on Real GDP of Sequential Stop-and-Go Policies 1/; 6. Sensitivity Analysis of Net Present Value of GDP of Fiscal Cooperation 1/; 9: Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Cooperation on Germany 1/; VI. Reform Complementary?; A. Increasing Labor Participation; 10: Fiscal Cooperation and Higher Labor Participation in Germany 1/; B. Higher R&D Spending; 11: Fiscal Cooperation and Higher R&D Spending in Germany 1/C. Higher Product Market Competition12: Fiscal Cooperation and Product Market Reform in Germany 1/; D. Implementation of Lisbon Agenda in Germany and the Euro Area; 13: Fiscal Cooperation and the Lisbon Agenda: Effects on Germany 1/; 14: Fiscal Cooperation and the Lisbon Agenda: Effects on the euro area 1/; 15: Fiscal Cooperation and Delayed and Partial Implementation of the; 16: Fiscal Cooperation and Delayed and Partial Implementation of the; VII. Summary and Conclusions; Appendix; A. Specification of GFM; References
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