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Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity, Theodore Barnhill, George Kopits

Label
Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity, Theodore Barnhill, George Kopits
Language
eng
Abstract
Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador's public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research
resource.governmentPublication
international or intergovernmental publication
Literary Form
non fiction
Main title
Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity
Nature of contents
dictionaries
Responsibility statement
Theodore Barnhill, George Kopits
Series statement
IMF Working Papers
Contributor
Content
Other version