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“Rules of Thumb” for Sovereign Debt Crises, Nouriel Roubini, Paolo Manasse

Contributor
Abstract
This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction
Table Of Contents
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE""; ""III. METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. THE EMPIRICAL TREE""; ""V. CLASSIFICATION TABLE""; ""VI. PREDICTION""; ""VII. WERE THE 1990S DIFFERENT?""; ""VIII. OTHER EXTENSIONS""; ""IX. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References""
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (33 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781451997460

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