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The Global Financial Crisis :, An Anatomy of Global Growth, Troy Matheson

Abstract
The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and pay particular attention to the period around the global financial crisis. A dynamic factor model is used to decompose each country’s growth into contributions from global, regional, and idiosyncratic shocks. We find a high degree of global synchronization over 1990 to 2011, particularly across advanced economies. Examining the period around the global financial crisis, we find global shocks had large and widespread effects on growth, with more diversity in growth experiences in the early part of the recovery. In a recursive experiment, we find rising global growth synchronization just prior to the crisis, largely resulting from a shift in the importance of global shocks between countries. In contrast, the crisis period caused a much more widespread increase in growth synchronization, and was followed by a similarly pervasive decrease in synchronization in the early recovery
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. A Model of Global Growth; B. Modeling Annual Variables; C. Aggregation Equations; D. Methodological Limitations; III. Estimation; IV. Data; V. Results, 1990-2011; A. Variance Decompositions; B. Historical Shock Decompositions; Tables; 1 Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Annual Growth (quarters ahead), 1990-2011; Figures; 1 Historical Shock Decompositions, Annual Growth; VI. A Recursive Experiment; A. Forecast Evaluation; B. How Have the Factors Driving Growth Changed?; 2 Forecasting Performance, Annual Growth, 2005Q4-2011Q4
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (41 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781484359747

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