European Parliament Library

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Michal Andrle, Haris Munandar, Charles Freedman, Danny Hermawan

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties
Table Of Contents
Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- A. Background -- B. A Brief Outline of Indonesian Economic Developments Over The Sample Period -- II. Benchmark Model -- A. Background -- B. The Specification of The Model -- B.1 Observable variables and data definitions -- B.2 Stochastic processes and model definitions -- B.3 Behavorial equations -- B.4 Cross correlations of disturbances -- III. Extending the Model to Include Financial-Real Linkages -- A. Background -- B. Model Specication Incorporating the US Bank Lending TighteningVariable -- V. Confronting the Model with the Data -- A. Bayesian Estimation -- B. Results -- B.1 Estimates of coeficients -- B.2 Estimates of standard deviation of structural shocks and cross correlations -- B.3 RMSEs -- B.4 Impulse response functions -- VI. Concluding Remarks -- IV. Modifications of the Model for the Indonesian Economy -- References -- Appendix: GPM Data Definitions -- Figures -- 1. Indonesia - Historical Data [1] -- 2. Indonesia - Historical Data [2] -- 3. Indonesia - Historical Data [3] -- 4. Comparison CDS Emerging Countries -- 5. Indonesia Historical Inflation Graph -- 6. Domestic Demand Shock -- 7. Domestic Price Shock -- 8. Domestic Interest Rate Shock -- 9. Domestic Real Exchange Rate Shock -- 10. Shock to the Domestic Target Rate of Inflation -- 11. Demand Shock in the US -- 12. BLT Shock in the US -- Tables -- 1. Results from Posterior Maximization -- 2. Results from Posterior Parameters (standard deviation of structural shocks) -- 3. Results from Posterior Parameters (correlation of structural shocks) -- 4. Root Mean Squared Errors
Literary Form
non fiction
1st ed.
"November 2009."
Physical Description
57 p., ill.
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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