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Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East, Ludvig Söderling, Hanan Morsy, Martin Petri, Martin Hommes, Manal Fouad, Wojciech Maliszewski

Public debt in the Middle East increased during the mid-1990s mainly because of fiscal expansions. It decreased in recent years, thanks to high oil revenue, economic growth, some primary non-oil fiscal adjustment, and debt relief. While countries in the Middle East appear to have adequately reacted to high indebtedness in the past, public debt levels remain uncomfortably high in many, particularly non-oil producing countries and middle income oil producers. Non-oil countries adjust mainly by increasing revenues, whereas oil countries adjust expenditure. For non-oil producing countries, substantial fiscal adjustment would be needed to bring debt down to below 50 percent of GDP. Oil producers as a group appear to follow sustainable, though procyclical, fiscal policies. Middle-income (but not high-income) oil producing countries would need to adjust somewhat to bring their policies in line with the permanent oil income benchmark
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Total Public Debt: Middle East vs. Emerging Markets; II. Why Has Public Debt Been High?; 2. Composition of Total Debt to GDP in 2003; 3. Debt by Origin; Boxes; 1. Evolution of Debt in the Middle-East Since the Early 1990s by Country Groups; A. Oil Dependence and the Origins of Public Debt; 4. Oil Export and Government Revenue in Oil Producing Countries; 5. Overall Balance; 6. Revenue, Expenditure, Assets and External Debt; 2. The Role of Regional characteristics in Shaping Debt Dynamics; B. What Shaped the Evolution of Debt (1999-2005)?
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (38 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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