European Parliament Library

Writing Clearly :, ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication, Martin Cihak, Katerina Smídková, Ales Bulir

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Motivation and Literature Overview; A. Communicating Clearly; B. Literature on Monetary Policy Communication; III. Methodology and Data; A. Methodology ("Central Bank Watching for Dummies"); Tables; 1. Slope Coefficient in a Regression of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; Figures; 1. Correlation of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; 2. GARCH Estimate of the Policy Rule for the ECB; 3. Parameterization Overview; B. Data; 2. Euro Area: Actual Inflation, Inflation Targets, and Inflation Expectations
Literary Form
non fiction
1st ed.
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (36 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

Library Locations

  • EP Library Brussels

    60 rue Wiertz, Brussels, B-1047, BE
  • EP Library Strasbourg

    7 Place Adrien Zeller, Allée du Printemps, Strasbourg, F-67070, FR
  • EP Library Luxembourg

    Rue du Fort Thüngen, Luxembourg, L-1313, LU