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A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis, Gabriel Di Bella

This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Accounting Framework; III. Establishing a Target Debt Ratio; Tables; 1. Institutional Investors' Country Credit Survey; 2. The Role of History and Clubs; 3. Predicted IIR for the Dominican Republic; IV. Assessing the Appropriate CPS Primary Balance; 4. Variance Covariance Matrix; Figures; 1. Dominican Republic: Generated Macroeconomic Data through 2012; 5. CPS Primary Balance needed to decrease the Debt/GDP ratio; 2. Dominican Republic: Evolution of CPS Debt Ratio for different debt target ratios
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (28 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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