European Parliament Library

Republic of Poland :, Selected Issues

This Selected Issues paper employs a suite of models to determine the main drivers of inflation in Poland. Inflation in Poland has stayed below the lower bound of the target band for about two years with external shocks adding to downward pressure during 2014. The paper provides a range of inflation forecasts to assess the likelihood of protracted low inflation. The paper considers the main factors underlying recent inflation developments and assesses the importance of first-round indirect and second-round effects of external shocks for headline inflation. Using a variety of models, the paper also provides possible forecast paths for inflation in Poland
Table Of Contents
Cover; CONTENTS; FORECASTING INFLATION IN POLAND; A. Stylized Facts; FIGURES; 1. Recent Inflation Developments, 2004-15; B. Drivers of Recent Inflation Developments; 2. Potential Output and Inflation, 2004-14; 3. Drivers of Recent Inflation Developments, 2004-15; 4. Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations and Inflationary Pressure, 2006-15; C. Forecasting Inflation; 5. Disaggregate Model with Indirect and Second-Round Effects, 2010-16; TABLES; 1. STFS Model: Inflation Forecast; 2. Augmented Phillips Curve: Coefficient Estimates; D. Outlook and Risk; 6. Augmented Phillips Curve, 2009-16
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (67 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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