European Parliament Library

Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria :, Low But Still Relevant, Dirk Muir, Anke Weber

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Abstract
With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions and capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output, while non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact. The results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term
Table Of Contents
Cover; Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant; I. INTRODUCTION; II. LITERATURE REVIEW; III. FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN BULGARIA-AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH; A. Data and Methodology; B. Results; IV. FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN BULGARIA-USING THE IMF'S GIMF; A. The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF); B. Data and Methodology; C. Results; V. IS THERE A BETTER WAY TO STRUCTURE THE BUDGET TO SUPPORT GROWTH IN BULGARIA IN THE FUTURE?; VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS; VII. APPENDIX; REFERENCES
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
February 2013
Physical Description
1 online resource (20 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781475534344

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