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A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy, Igor Ermolaev, Michel Juillard, Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Dmitry Korshunov

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; A. Objectives; B. The US Economy Over the Sample Period; II. Benchmark Model Without Financial-Real Linkages; A. Background; B. The Specification of The Model; B1. Observable variables and data definitiions; B2. Stochastic processs and model definitions; B3. Behavioral equations; C. Bayesian Estimation; D. Confronting the Balanced Model with The Data; III. Extended Model with Financial-Real Linkages; A. Background; B. Model Specifications; B1. Financial- real linkages; B2. Cross correlations of disturbances; C. Results; D. Some Extensions
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (56 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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