European Parliament Library

Long :, Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?, Lorenzo Giorgianni, Jeremy Berkowitz

Abstract
Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. By considering the implied vector error-correction model, we show that little is to be gained from estimating such regressions for horizons greater than one time period. We also show that in small to medium samples the long-horizon procedure gives rise to spurious evidence of predictive power. A simulation study demonstrates that even when using this technique on two independent series, estimates, diagnostic statistics and graphical evidence incorrectly suggest a high degree of predictability of the dependent variable
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph
Physical Description
1 online resource (21 pages)
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9786613784148

Library Locations

  • EP Library Strasbourg

    7 Place Adrien Zeller, Allée du Printemps, Strasbourg, F-67070, FR
    Borrow
  • EP Library Brussels

    60 rue Wiertz, Brussels, B-1047, BE
    Borrow
  • EP Library Luxembourg

    Rue du Fort Thüngen, Luxembourg, L-1313, LU
    Borrow