European Parliament Library

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap, Shekhar Aiyar, Romain Duval, Damien Puy, Yiqun Wu, Longmei Zhang

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies
Table Of Contents
Cover; Contents; I. Setting the Stage; II. Some Stylized Facts; Figures; 1. Cross-Country Comparison; 2. Growth Trajectories; 3. Low-Income Countries; 4. Slowdown in Latin America: 1970s vs. 1980; III. Identifying Growth Slowdowns; 5. Growth Success in Asia; Tables; 1. Distribution of Slowdown Episodes by Region; 2. Distribution of Slowdown Episodes by Time Period; 6. Is There a Middle Income Trap?; IV. The Determinants of Growth Slowdowns: Methodology; V. The Determinants of Growth Slowdowns: Empirical Results; A. Institutions; 3. Institutions; B. Demography; C. Infrastructure; 4. Demography
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (65 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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