European Parliament Library

One Money, One Market—A Revised Benchmark, Christian Henn, Theo Eicher

Abstract
The introduction of the euro generated substantial interest in measuring the impact of currency unions (CUs) on trade flows. Rose's (2000) initial estimates suggested a tripling of trade and created a literature in search of "more reasonable" CU effects. A recent meta-analysis of this literature shows that subsequent papers quantify CU trade impacts at 30-90 percent. However, most recent studies use shorter time series and fewer countries than Rose in his original work. We revisit Rose's original benchmark, extend the dataset, and address Baldwin's (2006) critiques regarding the proper specification of gravity models in large panels by simultaneously accounting for multilateral resistance and unobserved bilateral heterogeneity. This produces a robust average CU trade effect of 45 percent. Yet, the trade impacts of individual CUs vary substantially and are generally lower than those of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Our revised benchmark can be used as a yardstick for future studies to delineate how estimates differ due to new data or differences in econometric specifications
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Data; III. Empirical Implementation of the Gravity Model; IV. Multilateral Resistance and the Trade Effects of Currency Unions; V. Benchmark CU Trade Effects addressing Multilateral Resistance and Unobserved Bilateral Heterogeneity; VI. Sensitivity Analysis; VII. Conclusion; Tables; 1. Trade Effects of Currency Unions; 2. Sensitivity Analysis: Average Currency Union Effects on Trade; 3. Sensitivity Analysis: Trade Effects of Individual Currency Unions; Appendix Table; A1. Countries in Sample; A2. Membership and Observations for Currency Unions and Boards
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
"September 2009."
Physical Description
1 online resource (25 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781451873337

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