European Parliament Library

Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries, Daniel Kanda

Abstract
For a number of countries - Italy, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and France - this paper develops an inter-temporal model that elicits the implied country-preferences over balancing the conflicting objectives of fiscal consolidation and reduction of economic slack. The model suggests that some front-loading of adjustment is desirable, although the extent would vary by country preferences. It also finds that proposed consolidations may prove to be stronger than acceptable, especially if somewhat larger than anticipated fiscal multipliers lead to a sizeable economic deceleration
Table Of Contents
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Estimating the Fiscal Sustainability Gap; Figures; 1. Fiscal Indicators for Selected European Countries; III. Modeling the Fiscal Consolidation Path; A. Calibration; IV. Application of the Model to Countries; 2. Comparison of Predicted and Announced Fiscal Consolidation, 2011-15; 3. Predicted Fiscal Adjustment Paths and Associated Output Gaps, 2011-60; 4. Projected Paths for Closing Sustainability Gaps, and Costs of Delay; 5. Projected Evolution of Fiscal Balances and Debt, 2011-60
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (25 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781462362738

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