European Parliament Library

Russian Federation :, Selected Issues

This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output and the output gap in Russia. Estimating potential output in Russia is difficult because its economy is large and complex, in transition, and dependent on oil. First, Russia presents large territorial and sectoral heterogeneity. Second, structural issues are difficult to estimate in transition economies. Third, the energy sector dominates exports and GDP, making Russia vulnerable to large terms of trade shocks. This paper estimates potential output taking into account these challenges and using a variety of methodologies. The results obtained show that the output gap in Russia exhibits high uncertainty
Table Of Contents
Cover; CONTENTS; POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND THE OUTPUT GAP IN RUSSIA; A. Introduction; B. Pros, Cons, and Pitfalls when Estimating Potential Output; C. Potential Output and Output Gap Estimations for Russia; D. Observable Indicators and a Probabilistic Approach; FIGURES; 1. Output Gap; 2. Real Sector Indicators; 3. Capacity Utilization and Labor Market Indicators; 4. Output Gap in Russia; 5. Trend Volatility; 6. Potential Growth; E. Conclusion; 7. Population Dynamics and Trading Partner's Growth; APPENDIX; REFERENCES
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (20 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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