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Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries :, Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis, Chris Papageorgiou, Hans Weisfeld, Catherine Pattillo, Martin Schindler, Nikola Spatafora, Andrew Berg

This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility
Table Of Contents
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Key Stylized Facts; 1. Change in Output Growth Rate; 2. Output Growth Rate; 3. Relative Severity of 2009 Output Decline; 4. Synchronization of Business Cycles: Average Bilateral Correlations of Real GDP per Capita Growth, 1965-2009; 5. Change in the Growth Rate of External Demand; 6. Change in the Growth Rate of the External Terms of Trade; 7. Change in FDI/GDP; III. Cross-Country Analysis; 8. External Demand and Per-Capita GDP Growth in Non-Fuel-Exporting LICs and MICs, 2007-09; 1. Cross-Country Regression Analysis
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (65 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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