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Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries

This paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well asfrom the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. The 1998 Russian Crisis; Figures; 1. The Baltic Countries: Responses of Aggregate Demand Components to 1998 Russian Crisis (year-on-year change, in percent); III. Trade and Financial Linkages; 2. The Baltics: Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (in percent of total, 1994-2007); Tables; 1. The Baltics: Sources and Destination of Foreign Direct Investment (in percent of total, 2007); 3 Baltic Countries: Business Cycle Synchronization with Major Trading Partners; IV. Econometric Analysis; A. Vector Auto regression Models
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (40 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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