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The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries, Stephan Danninger, Annette Kyobe, M. Cangiano

Abstract
This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect
Table Of Contents
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. VARIETIES OF COUNTRY INSURANCE""; ""A. Capital Controls""; ""B. Self-Insurance""; ""C. Private Insurance""; ""D. IMF-Led Packages""; ""E. Regional Swap Agreements""; ""III. A NEW COUNTRY INSURANCE FACILITY""; ""A. Eligibility Criteria""; ""B. Interest Rate""; ""C. Duration""; ""D. Size""; ""E. Procedures""; ""F. The Exit Problem""; ""IV. FINAL REMARKS""
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (34 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781451905571

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