European Parliament Library

Structural Models in Real Time, Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Jaromir Benes, Douglas Laxton, Troy Matheson

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States
Table Of Contents
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background; III. The Real Time Problem; 1. Data Available at the Beginning of Quarter Q; IV. Four Options for Incorporating External Information Into A Forecast; A. Model Based Forecast with Data Set Truncation; B. Model Based Forecast with Incomplete Data Set; C. Hard Tunes-Setting Values in A Model-Based Forecast Based On Extraneous Analysis; D. Soft Tunes-Combined Approach; V. Application; VI. Application: Real-Time Data; 2. Indicative Calendar of Data Releases (example is 2009Q1)
Literary Form
non fiction
"March 2010."
Physical Description
1 online resource (40 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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