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Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy :, The Case of Venezuela, Alfredo Baldini

This paper analyzes the fiscal policy in Venezuela during 1991-2003, by using a number of statistical approaches to analyze trends and cycles of economic output and fiscal outcomes. The business cycle features a strong dominance of short-term cyclical components-each cycle having an average duration of about two to three years. However, the cyclical volatility of non-oil sector GDP is more than two times as large as the volatility of oil sector GDP. On the fiscal side, while oil revenues are independent of the business cycle, all the other main fiscal variables exhibit strong procyclicality. In particular, fiscal procyclicality is higher during good times than bad times, which could be related to the existence of "voracity effects." The discretionary component of fiscal policy is as volatile as the component induced by the business cycle
Table Of Contents
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT THE VOLATILITY OF REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES""; ""III. FISCAL TRENDS IN VENEZUELA""; ""IV. DETRENDING AND BUSINESS CYCLES: THE METHODOLOGY""; ""A. The Hodrick-Prescott Filter""; ""B. The ARIMA Model-Based Approach""; ""C. The Frequency-Domain Approach""; ""D. The Modified Hodrick and Prescott Filter""; ""V. BUSINESS CYCLE PROPERTIES OF FISCAL VARIABLES IN VENEZUELA""; ""A. Volatility""; ""B. Persistence""; ""C. Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy""; ""VI. FISCAL POLICY BEHAVIOR: DISCRETIONARY VERSUS CYCLICAL COMPONENT""
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (44 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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