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Desynchronized :, The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC, Serhan Cevik

Abstract
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies
Table Of Contents
Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. An Overview of Economic Developments in the GCC Countries; Figures; FIGURES; 1. GCC: Real GDP Growth, 2000-10; III. Empirical Methodology; IV. Estimation Results; Tables; TABLES; 1. Bilateral Correlations of the Cyclical Component of Real Non-Hydrocardbon GDP; 2. Bilateral Correlations of the Cyclical Component of Real Government Consumption; 3. Bilateral Correlations of the Cyclical Component of Real Government Investment; 4. Bilateral Correlations of the Cyclical Component of Real Private Consumption
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (26 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781463931117

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