European Parliament Library

United States :, Selected Issues

This Selected Issues paper on the United States of America examines the recent US labor force penetration rate (LFPR) dynamics. LFPR dynamics can be driven by structural factors and cyclical ones related to job prospects. With participation rates for older workers lower than for prime age workers, demographic models suggest that aging of the baby boom generation explains about 50 percent of the near 3p.p. LFPR decline during 2007–2013. State-level panel regression analysis is used to tie down the cyclical effect, which is estimated to account for about 30–40 percent of the decline. Significant remaining slack in the labor market points to an important role for macroeconomic and labor supply policies. This suggests a still important role for stimulative macroeconomic policies to help reach full employment. Macroeconomic policy should remain accommodative for a while given sizeable labor market slack. This slack goes beyond that signaled by the unemployment rate and takes account of the LFPR being below trend and many employees working part time ‘involuntarily’
Table Of Contents
Cover; CONTENTS; RECENT US LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION DYNAMICS: REVERSIBLE OR NOT?; A. Introduction; B. Population Aging and the "Demographic Effect"; C. Estimating the "Cyclical Effect" Using State Level Data; TABLES; 1. Shift Share Analysis: Deviations from Base Year (a); 2. Shift Share Analysis: Deviations from Base Year (b); 3. State Level Regression Results; 4. Decomposition of Aggregate LFPR Change Based on Regression Estimates; D. Youths, SSDI, and Older Workers; 5. School Enrollment Statistics; 6. Compositional Changes in Participation by School Enrollment
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (114 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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