European Parliament Library

Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries, Dalia Hakura

This paper establishes that output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across all countries over the past three decades, but remain considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to result from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970-2003 period suggest that discretionary fiscal spending volatility, and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility are key determinants of volatility and large output drops
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction And Literature Overview; II. Volatility and Output Drops: Stylized Facts Across Emerging Market and Developing Country Regions; Figures; 1. Volatility of Output Growth; 2. Volatility of Output Growth by Region; Tables; 1. Output Volatility and Output Drops by Region; 3. Output Volatility and Worst Output Drops; 4. Global Factor and Actual Global Growth; 5. Regional Factors; 6. Contributors to Volatility in Real per Capita Output Growth, 1970-2004; 2. Contributors to Volatility in Real Per Capita Output Growth
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (34 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

Library Locations

  • EP Library Brussels

    60 rue Wiertz, Brussels, B-1047, BE
  • EP Library Luxembourg

    Rue du Fort Thüngen, Luxembourg, L-1313, LU
  • EP Library Strasbourg

    7 Place Adrien Zeller, Allée du Printemps, Strasbourg, F-67070, FR