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Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact :, Evidence from Survey Data, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Jan-Christoph Rülke

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP
Table Of Contents
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; I. Introduction; II. Dataset and Descriptive Statistics; A. The Data Sample; B. Forecast Accuracy and Bias for the Whole Sample; III. Forecast Accuracy and Bias during the SGP; IV. The Convergence of European Commission and NFAs Fiscal Forecasts with Market Forecasts; A. European Commission; B. National Fiscal Authorities; V. Conclusion; Appendices; References; Footnotes
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (66 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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