European Parliament Library

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks, Sylwia Nowak, Pratiti Chatterjee

Abstract
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Physical Description
1 online resource (15 pages), illustrations (some color), tables.
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781475555561

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