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External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America, Gustavo Adler, Sebastian Sosa

Abstract
Highly favorable external conditions have helped Latin America strengthen its economic fundamentals over the last decade. But, has the region built enough buffers to guard itself from a weakening of the external environment? This paper addresses this question by developing a simple framework that integrates econometric estimates of the effect of global factors on key domestic variables that determine public and external debt dynamics, with the IMF‘s standard debt sustainability framework. Results suggest that, while some countries in the region are well placed to withstand moderate or even large shocks, many would benefit from having stronger buffers to be in a position to deploy countercyclical policies, especially under tail events. External sustainability, on the other hand, does not appear to be a source of concern for most countries
Table Of Contents
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Latin America: Fey Fiscal Indicators, 2002-12; 2. Latin America. Key External Indicators, 2002-12; II. A Decade of Falling Public and External Debt, 2003-12; A. Fiscal sustainability; Pre-Lehman Period: 2003-08; Post-Lehman Period: 2009-12; B. External sustainability; Pre-Lehman Period: 2003-08; 3. Factors Driving Public Debt Dynamics, 2003-12; 4. Components of Primary Balance Dynamics, 1995-2012; Post-Lehman Period: 2009-12; 5. Factors Driving External Debt Dynamics, 2003-12; III. Methodological Approach
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
"January 2013."
Physical Description
1 online resource (54 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781299265066

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