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Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea, Li Zeng

Creator
Abstract
This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections
Table Of Contents
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Forecast Models; III. Model Evaluations; IV. Evaluation Results; V. The New Forecast Framework: An Application; VI. Conclusion; I. Data Summary; II.1. Summary of Indicator Forecast Models - Private Consumption; II.2. Summary of Indicator Forecast Models - Investment; II.3. Summary of Indicator Forecast Models - Government Consumption; II.4a. Summary of Indicator Forecast Models - Exports (I); II.4b. Summary of Indicator Forecast Models - Exports (II); II.5. Summary of Indicator Forecast Models - Imports
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (43 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9786613869463

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