European Parliament Library

People’s Republic of China :, Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Abstract
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that China is transitioning to a new normal, with slower-yet-safer, more sustainable growth. Growth in 2014 fell to 7.4 percent and, in 2015, is forecast to slow further to 6.8 percent on the back of slower investment, especially in real estate. The labor market has remained resilient despite slower growth, as the economy pivots toward the more labor-intensive service sector. Considerable progress has been made in external rebalancing. The current account surplus fell to 2.1 percent in 2014 from the peak of about 10 percent in 2007, and the renminbi has appreciated by about 10 percent since 2014 in real effective terms. Further progress has also been made on domestic rebalancing
Table Of Contents
Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK -- A. Recent Developments: Adjustment Underway -- B. Rebalancing -- THE CHALLENGE: MANAGING THE SLOWDOWN, ADJUSTMENT, AND REFORM -- A. Vulnerabilities -- B. Impact of Reforms -- POLICIES -- A. Reducing Vulnerabilities while Managing Demand -- B. Reforms for Growth -- SPILLOVERS, DOWNSIDE RISKS, AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS -- A. Spillovers -- B. Downside Risks -- C. Alternative Scenarios -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Risk of Deflation -- 2. Labor Market Developments -- 3. Deleveraging -- 4. China's Equity Market: Recent Developments and Risks -- 5. How Big Is the Risk of a Real Estate Slowdown and Does It Matter? -- 6. Growth Scenarios -- 7. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Stance: Assessing and Projecting -- 8. Toward an Equitable, Sustainable, and Integrated Social Insurance System -- 9. Moving To a More Flexible Exchange Rate Regime -- 10. Spillovers from Changing Patterns in Chinese Trade -- FIGURES -- 1. Real Sector Developments -- 2. Monetary and Financial Developments -- 3. Domestic Rebalancing -- 4. External Developments -- 5. Reduction in Vulnerabilities -- 6. Growth Projections -- 7. State-Owned Enterprises -- 8. External Debt -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators -- 2. Balance of Payments -- 3. Indicators of External Vulnerability -- 4. Monetary Developments -- 5. General Government Fiscal Data -- 6. Illustrative Medium-Term Scenario -- APPENDICES -- I. Implementation of Main Recommendations from the 2014-15 FSAP for China -- II. External Sector Assessment -- III. Debt Sustainability Analysis -- IV.Global Risk Assessment Matrix -- CONTENTS -- FUND RELATIONS -- WORLD BANK-IMF COLLABORATION -- RELATIONS WITH THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK -- STATISTICAL ISSUES -- TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Physical Description
1 online resource (124 pages)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9781513538723

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