European Parliament Library

Vietnam :, Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap, Wojciech Maliszewski

The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure
Table Of Contents
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Growth and inflation developments; III. Model and Estimation Procedure; A. Model specification; Output Gap Equation; Phillips Curve; Potential output; B. Data; Figure 1. Vietnam: Model variables; C. Estimation method; Prior Parameters; Table 1. Vietnam: Prior and Posterior Model Parameters; Initial values for unobservable components; IV. Results; Posterior coefficients; Figure 2. Vietnam: Variance ratios; Output gap series; Figure 3. Vietnam: Model-based estimates of output gap; Comparison with the HP filter
Literary Form
non fiction
"June 2010"
Physical Description
1 online resource (41 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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