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Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources, Rudolfs Bems, Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Exporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings in economies with exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of the exhaustible resource. Results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings. When aggregated over the sample countries, precautionary savings in 2006 add up to 3.2 percent of GDP. The quantitative importance of the precautionary motive varies considerably across the sample countries and is driven primarily by the weight of exhaustible resource revenues in future income. The parameterized model fares well at capturing current account balances in both cross-section and time-series data
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Modeling Framework; A. Small Open Endowment Economy; B. Optimal Solution; Deterministic case, εt = 0; Stochastic case, εt > 0; III. Parameterization and Baseline Model Results; A. Model Parameterization; B. Baseline Model Results; Norway; Other exporters of exhaustible resources; IV. Sensitivity Analysis; A. Preference Parameters; B. Growth in Non-Exhaustible Resource Output; C. Path and Lifespan of Exhaustible Resource Extraction; D. Process for Exhaustible Resource Prices; V. Extension to Time-Series of Optimal outcomes; A. Setup and Parameterization
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (40 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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