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Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan :, Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?, Francesco Grigoli, Dalia Hakura

This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy
Table Of Contents
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Determinants Of The Strength Of Recoveries; III. Empirical Analysis; A. Identifying Turning Points in Economic Activity; 1. Real Non-oil GDP Growth rates and HP-based Output Gaps; 2. Recessions and Recoveries; B. Empirical Strategy and Data; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; 1. Properties of Non-Oil Output Growth Rates; 2. Descriptive Statistics on Filtered Non-Oil Output; 3. Recovery Years; D. Basic Facts on Episodes of Recessions and Recoveries in the MENAP Region
Literary Form
non fiction
"May 2010"
Physical Description
1 online resource (39 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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