European Parliament Library

Guatemala :, Selected Issues and Analytical Notes

This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP
Table Of Contents
Cover; CONTENTS; ANALYTICAL NOTE I. ASSESSING POTENTIAL OUTPUT; FIGURES; 1. Potential Output and Output Gap 1990-2012; 2. Potential Output and Output GAP-State-Space Model; ANALYTICAL NOTE II. SPILLOVERS ANALYSIS; A. Growth Spillovers; B. Fiscal Spillovers; FIGURE; 1. Growth Spillovers Baseline and Scenarios; C. Banking and Sovereign Stress Spillovers; ANALYTICAL NOTE III. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT; A. Guatemala's Public Debt: Structure and Risks; B. Assessing Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Sustainability; C. Policy Implications; REFERENCES; ANALYTICAL NOTE IV. BALANCE SHEETS
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (40 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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