European Parliament Library

The Economics of Political Transitions :, Implications for the Arab Spring, Padamja Khandelwal, Agustin Roitman

Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump
Table Of Contents
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Sample Selection and Methodology; Table; 1. Political Instability Events Since 1980; III. Main Findings; A.Output; Figures; 1. Real GDP Growth; 2. Output Gap; B.Consumption and Investment; 3. Unemployment Rate; 4. Gross Fixed Public Capital Formation; 5. Gross Fixed Private Capital Formation; C.Fiscal Positions; 6. Overall Fiscal Balance; 7. Current Account Balance; D.External Balances and International Reserves; E.Exchange Rates and Inflation; 8. Selected Financial Flows; 9. Nominal Currency Depreciation and Inflation During the Crisis
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (14 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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