European Parliament Library

Balance of Payments Anti-Crises, Isabel Yan, Michael Kumhof

Several emerging economies have, until recently, experienced large government surpluses and accelerating foreign exchange reserve accumulation. This has been accompanied by economic booms, exchange rate appreciations and in some cases increases in domestic inflation. We show that one way to understand these episodes is as manifestations of balance of payments anti-crises, as reflecting the perception that the government intends to discontinue its accumulation of reserves in the near future. The end-phase of such crises is characterized by nominal interest rates approaching their zero lower bound in accelerating fashion and, if the government targets CPI inflation, by fast increasing domestic inflation
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Households; B. Firms; C. Government; D. Equilibrium; E. Government Revenue Shock; III. Model Solution; A. Parameter Values; B. Solution Method; IV. Anti-Crises; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. China and Colombia-Reserves and Inflation; 2. Chile, Norway and Russia - Reserves and Inflation; 3. (a) Anti-Crisis - Overview; 3. (b) Anti-Crisis - Labor Market; 3. (c) Anti-Crisis - Government Budget; 3. (d) Anti-Crisis - Price Levels and Inflation Rates
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (23 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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