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Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles, Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Charles Whiteman

Abstract
This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. We then quantify the relative importance of these components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods: the Bretton Woods (BW) period (1960-72), the period of common shocks (1972-86), and the globalization period (1986-2003). The results indicate that the common (G-7) factor explains a larger fraction of output, consumption, and investment volatility in the globalization period than in the BW period. These findings suggest that the degree of comovement of business cycles in major macroeconomic aggregates across the G-7 countries has increased during the globalization period
Table Of Contents
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. METHODOLOGY""; ""III. BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE G-7 COUNTRIES (1960:1�2003:4)""; ""IV. CHANGING NATURE OF THE G-7 BUSINESS CYCLES""; ""V. SOURCES OF CHANGES IN THE G-7 BUSINESS CYCLES""; ""VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION""; ""REFERENCES""
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (36 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9786613825230

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