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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States :, What Did the Great Recession Change?, Katerina Smídková, Jan Babecky, Ales Bulir

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty
Table Of Contents
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Tables and figures; Figure 1. FDI, Real Effective Exchange Rate, External Debt, Net Exports; Figure 2. FDI Inflows Are Paying Off, 1998-2008; Figure 3. "Tradable FDI" as a Share of "Nontradable FDI," 2002-2008; A. The First Step: Trade Equations; Table 1. Variables and Data Sources, 1998-2014; Table 2. Panel Estimates of Trade Equations; Table 3. Country-Specific FDI Elasticities; B. Second Step: Macroeconomic and Debt Scenarios; Table 4. Net External Debt Targets; Figure 4. Net foreign debt: Actual and simulated trajectories, 1998-2039
Literary Form
non fiction
"August 2010."
Physical Description
1 online resource (52 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

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