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Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets, Stephan Danninger

Abstract
Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive
Table Of Contents
""Contents""; ""INTRODUCTION""; ""I. RELATED LITERATURE""; ""II. MODEL SYNOPSIS""; ""III. BIASED REVENUE FORECASTS: THE CASE OF AZERBAIJAN""; ""A. Background""; ""B. Institutional Independence and the Forecasting Process""; ""C. Overstated Revenue in Azerbaijan""; ""IV. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK""; ""REFERENCES""
Language
eng
Literary Form
non fiction
Note
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (21 p.)
Specific Material Designation
remote
Form Of Item
online
Isbn
9780128206119

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