European Parliament Library

Estimating Poland's Potential Output :, A Production Function Approach, Natan Epstein, Corrado Macchiarelli

The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap
Table Of Contents
Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Production Function and Parameter Estimates; Tables; 1. ADF Test Statistics For Variables' Stationarity; 2. Johansen's Cointegration Test; 3. Static and Dynamic Least Squares Estimation; Figures; 1. Recursive Estimates of Cobb-Douglas Coefficients; III. Estimating Potential Inputs; A. First step: Kalman Decomposition of Unemployment; 4. Cyclical Component and Phillips Curve Estimates; B. Second Step: Economic Identification-Philips Curve; C. NAIRU Estimates; D. Potential Employment; 5. Trend and Cyclical Componentes of Unemployment; Boxes
Literary Form
non fiction
Description based upon print version of record
Physical Description
1 online resource (22 p.)
Specific Material Designation
Form Of Item

Library Locations

  • EP Library Luxembourg

    Rue du Fort Thüngen, Luxembourg, L-1313, LU
  • EP Library Strasbourg

    7 Place Adrien Zeller, Allée du Printemps, Strasbourg, F-67070, FR
  • EP Library Brussels

    60 rue Wiertz, Brussels, B-1047, BE